Excelsior 3-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host Jong PSV U21 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior — All Games: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.86 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Excelsior have the edge — a 0.86 PPG advantage (1.86 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 71% and Jong PSV U21 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 71% | Jong PSV U21 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.51 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.937 / defence 1.076 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.674 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Excelsior games / 7 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 48% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 26%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Jong PSV U21 3.85. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 67% | Jong PSV U21 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 48% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Excelsior 1.51 / Jong PSV U21 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.937 / def 1.076 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.674 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong PSV U21 xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21?
Excelsior 3 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 48% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.94) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.87
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.55
1.05
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.05 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Venue Form
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong PSV U21's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Excelsior's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.33 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
0
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong PSV U21?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior 5-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong PSV U21?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 67%, Jong PSV U21 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Excelsior and 33% for Jong PSV U21.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 67% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Excelsior's recent games and 33% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong PSV U21 3-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.51 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 48% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 26%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 71%, Jong PSV U21 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.