Excelsior 0-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 47%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and FC Volendam meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Volendam in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Excelsior, 2 for FC Volendam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 4–0 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and FC Volendam 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 73% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.98 xG and FC Volendam 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.206 / defence 0.857 | FC Volendam attack 1.259 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Excelsior games / 18 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 28%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 3.57. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | FC Volendam 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Excelsior 1.98 / FC Volendam 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.206 / def 0.857 | FC Volendam attack 1.259 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Volendam xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs FC Volendam kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Excelsior 0 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Volendam part of?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Excelsior and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Record (6 meetings): Excelsior 3W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.26x) against Excelsior's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.15
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.50
1.52
FC Volendam xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
4%
25.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.52 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 13D 20L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 15W 10D 27L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Excelsior against 1.06 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.46 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 15W 10D 27L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or FC Volendam away?
Excelsior's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
From 10 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, FC Volendam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Excelsior, 84% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Excelsior and 72% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 84% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Excelsior's matches and 72% of FC Volendam's.
Do Excelsior and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Excelsior and FC Volendam drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.98 xG and FC Volendam 1.52 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against FC Volendam attack 1.26 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 28%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 73%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.35 PPG, FC Volendam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.