Emmen vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 2D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Emmen, 1.30 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Emmen 2W, FC Volendam 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 58% versus FC Volendam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | FC Volendam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.17 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.032 / defence 0.779 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Emmen's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Emmen games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 63% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 17%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | FC Volendam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | FC Volendam 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 63% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Emmen 2.17 / FC Volendam 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.032 / def 0.779 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Emmen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Emmen vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Volendam part of?
Emmen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 63% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Emmen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.78x) against Emmen's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.07
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.20
1.03
FC Volendam xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
51.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Emmen and 1.03 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 9D 16L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Emmen against 1.02 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 3D 14L from 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Volendam away?
Emmen's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Emmen
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 60%, FC Volendam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Emmen) and 55% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Emmen's recent matches and 45% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Emmen's matches and 55% of FC Volendam's.
Do Emmen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.