Emmen 0-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 6W 1D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC OSS are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Emmen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC OSS, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | FC OSS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.48 xG and FC OSS 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.933 / defence 0.841 | FC OSS attack 0.781 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.330. Data: 28 Emmen games / 67 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 4.76. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Emmen dominate the H2H record, yet FC OSS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | FC OSS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Emmen 1.48 / FC OSS 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.933 / def 0.841 | FC OSS attack 0.781 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Emmen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC OSS xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Emmen 0 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 50% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.93) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.39
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.35
0.88
FC OSS xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Emmen and 0.88 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 19W 16D 31L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 16W 9D 41L from 66 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.11 PPG, FC OSS on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 6W 6D 20L from 32 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.98 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 19W 16D 31L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 9D 41L in their last 66 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.38 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, FC OSS 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Emmen) and 56% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 28% of games; FC OSS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 47% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Emmen's recent games and 56% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.48 xG and FC OSS 0.88 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against FC OSS attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 50% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 21%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 54%, FC OSS 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.11 PPG, FC OSS 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.