Emmen 0-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Emmen at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.

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Match Analysis

Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Emmen stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Emmen have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Emmen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, FC OSS have recorded 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

FC OSS's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC OSS are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Emmen hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for FC OSS and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Emmen 1–0 FC OSS — a Emmen win.

The head-to-head data gives Emmen an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Emmen in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

FC OSS in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | FC OSS 59%). Note also that FC OSS surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.48 xG and FC OSS 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.933 / defence 0.841 | FC OSS attack 0.781 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.330. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Emmen's last 28 games and FC OSS's last 67.

Result probabilities: Emmen 50% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.01 | Draw 3.39 | FC OSS 4.82. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Emmen 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 40% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 20% (last 10 away games).

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