Dordrecht 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong AZ at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Dordrecht, 3 for Jong AZ and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2024, ended Dordrecht 1–3 Jong AZ — a Jong AZ win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 64% and Jong AZ 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Jong AZ 70%). Note also that Jong AZ surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.318 / defence 1.062 | Jong AZ attack 0.858 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.399. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.318 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 59 games and Jong AZ's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.88 | Draw 4.26 | Jong AZ 4.29. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Dordrecht 2.00 / Jong AZ 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.318 / def 1.062 | Jong AZ attack 0.858 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jong AZ xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 17 January 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 53% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 59 games and Jong AZ's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.26
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.27
1.27
Jong AZ xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
3%
31.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.27 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 21D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.37 PPG from 59 outings (23W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 16W 11D 2L across their last 29 home games, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.64 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 21D 10L in their last 59 games (1.78 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.03 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won Jong AZ 5-1 Dordrecht.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 59%, Jong AZ 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Dordrecht and 66% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dordrecht's games and 69% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Dordrecht's matches and 66% of Jong AZ's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 79% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Dordrecht and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.27 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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