Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (77%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dordrecht face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and FC OSS meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Dordrecht's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Dordrecht have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with FC OSS managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2024, ended Dordrecht 3–1 FC OSS — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data gives Dordrecht an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 64% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | FC OSS 49%). Note also that FC OSS surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.35 xG and FC OSS 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.357 / defence 0.742 | FC OSS attack 0.523 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.480. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.357 — their 2.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.523 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Dordrecht have a tight defence (rating 0.742), which is pulling FC OSS's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 53 games and FC OSS's last 53.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 77% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 7%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.30 | Draw 6.21 | FC OSS 14.33. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (77%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 25 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 77% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Dordrecht 2.35 / FC OSS 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.357 / def 0.742 | FC OSS attack 0.523 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.57
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 25 November 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 77% chance of winning, FC OSS a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dordrecht and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Dordrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.52x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 53 games and FC OSS's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 3-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.21
7%
14.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.92
0.57
FC OSS xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.21
16%
Draw
14.33
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
43%
2.31
1%
150.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.57 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 25W 19D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 14W 8D 31L from 53 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 26 home games (15W 9D 2L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 5D 18L from their last 26 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.81 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 25W 19D 9L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 8D 31L in their last 53 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.08 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC OSS in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won FC OSS 0-3 Dordrecht on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
3
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: FC OSS 3-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 54%, FC OSS 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dordrecht) and 46% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC OSS in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 31% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dordrecht's recent games and 46% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 58% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and FC OSS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Dordrecht and FC OSS drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.35 xG and FC OSS 0.57 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 0.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.36 / defence 0.74 against FC OSS attack 0.52 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 77% | Draw 16% | FC OSS 7%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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