Dordrecht vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 2W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 64% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 57% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.34 xG and De Graafschap 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.819 / defence 0.893 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Dordrecht games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 35% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 35% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.34 / De Graafschap 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.819 / def 0.893 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.42
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at M-Scores Stadion.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 5 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.93x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.92
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.75
1.42
De Graafschap xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.42 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 14L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.48 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.24 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Dordrecht, 76% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dordrecht) and 67% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dordrecht's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.