Dordrecht 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to M-Scores Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 6W 2D 2L at M-Scores Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Dordrecht. A 0.50 PPG lead over Almere City FC (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Almere City FC 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 51% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 64% | Almere City FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.73 xG and Almere City FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.890 / defence 0.805 | Almere City FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.771 / away 1.422. Data: 51 Dordrecht games / 13 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Almere City FC lead the H2H ledger, but Dordrecht carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Dordrecht 1.73 / Almere City FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.890 / def 0.805 | Almere City FC attack 0.836 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.771 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 56% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.89) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.84x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.23
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.69
0.96
Almere City FC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.96 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 24W 10D 13L from 47 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 28L across 47 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 14W 7D 2L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 7W 12D 28L in their last 47 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.13 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 61%, Almere City FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Dordrecht and 52% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 39% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Dordrecht's matches and 52% of Almere City FC's.
Do Dordrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Dordrecht 0-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.73 xG and Almere City FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Almere City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 64%, Almere City FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.