Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dordrecht face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as Dordrecht welcome ADO Den Haag to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.70 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
ADO Den Haag have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Dordrecht's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus ADO Den Haag 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | ADO Den Haag 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 0.93 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.823 / defence 1.063 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.167 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.483. ADO Den Haag's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Dordrecht games / 73 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 1.69. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | ADO Den Haag 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Dordrecht 0.93 / ADO Den Haag 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.823 / def 1.063 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.167 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 19% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 4 | ADO Den Haag 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.82x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
19%
5.37
23%
4.43
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.77
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
5.37
19%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.29
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
33.78
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.84 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 19D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 2.04 PPG from 75 outings (47W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 19W 11D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.92 points per game from 37 outings (21W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.01 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 32W 19D 24L in their last 75 games (1.53 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 47W 12D 16L in their last 75 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.84 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
4
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, ADO Den Haag 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Dordrecht and 60% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 57% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 0.93 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.