Den Bosch 0-5 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and NAC Breda meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 6W 0D 3L at Stadion De Vliert — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.70 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 41% versus NAC Breda 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 53% | NAC Breda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.31 xG and NAC Breda 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.897 / defence 0.985 | NAC Breda attack 0.657 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.487. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Den Bosch games / 17 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | NAC Breda 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 44% | NAC Breda 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Den Bosch 1.31 / NAC Breda 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.897 / def 0.985 | NAC Breda attack 0.657 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.96
NAC Breda xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kick off?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Den Bosch 0 - 5 NAC Breda.
Where is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda part of?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 44% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Den Bosch and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.66x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.57
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.27
0.96
NAC Breda xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.96 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 8W 1D 8L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 6L across 17 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.35 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 6W 0D 3L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 1D 8L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or NAC Breda away?
Den Bosch's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 2.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
1
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, NAC Breda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 44%, NAC Breda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Den Bosch) and 44% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 44% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Den Bosch's recent games and 44% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Den Bosch 0-5 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.31 xG and NAC Breda 0.96 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.3 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 0.96 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 0.66 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 44% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 53%, NAC Breda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.47 PPG, NAC Breda 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.