Den Bosch 1-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 52%, yet in-form MVV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour MVV — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 3, MVV 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus MVV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | MVV 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.86 xG and MVV 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.309 / defence 0.987 | MVV attack 0.907 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.319. Den Bosch carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Den Bosch games / 40 MVV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 23%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | MVV 4.35. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form MVV (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | MVV 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Den Bosch 1.86 / MVV 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.309 / def 0.987 | MVV attack 0.907 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.18
MVV xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 MVV.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 52% chance of winning, MVV a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 1 | MVV 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. MVV (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.31x the league average against MVV's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.90
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.04
1.18
MVV xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
4%
28.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.18 for MVV, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 9W 9D 22L from 40 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 15L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 4W 6D 10L from 20 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.60 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while MVV have gone 16W 9D 15L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
MVV's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.90 PPG; MVV away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 60%, MVV 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Den Bosch and 80% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Den Bosch's games and 65% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Den Bosch's matches and 80% of MVV's.
Do Den Bosch and MVV tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, MVV in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and MVV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and MVV finished level at 1-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.86 xG and MVV 1.18 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.31 / defence 0.99 against MVV attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 23%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, MVV 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.