Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 45%, yet in-form Jong PSV U21 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jong PSV U21 are 0.80 PPG clear of Den Bosch in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong PSV U21 in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Den Bosch 4W, Jong PSV U21 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 56% and Jong PSV U21 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 59% | Jong PSV U21 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.06 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.049 / defence 0.994 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.206 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.471. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong PSV U21 have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Den Bosch games / 69 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 33%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 3.03. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong PSV U21 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Jong PSV U21 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Den Bosch 2.06 / Jong PSV U21 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.049 / def 0.994 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.206 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Jong PSV U21 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 March 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 45% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 4W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.21x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
45%
2.22
22%
4.63
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.83
1.76
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
4%
23.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.76 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 25W 18D 26L from 69 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 35L across 69 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.16 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 16W 10D 8L from 34 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 11W 5D 18L across 34 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.70 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 70%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 25W 18D 26L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 23W 11D 35L in their last 69 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.71 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 53%, Jong PSV U21 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 68% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Den Bosch's games and 62% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 68% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.06 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.21 / defence 1.23, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 45% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, Jong PSV U21 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.35 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.