Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Den Bosch face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host FC Volendam at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Den Bosch have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, FC Volendam have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Volendam — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
FC Volendam have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Den Bosch. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Den Bosch 2–3 FC Volendam — a FC Volendam win.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC Volendam have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 47% versus FC Volendam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | FC Volendam 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.983 / defence 0.987 | FC Volendam attack 1.237 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. FC Volendam have an above-average attack rating of 1.237, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 61 games and FC Volendam's last 23.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.79 | Draw 4.05 | FC Volendam 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Den Bosch 1.49 / FC Volendam 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.983 / def 0.987 | FC Volendam attack 1.237 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Den Bosch 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 36% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 61 games and FC Volendam's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
36%
2.79
25%
4.05
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.06
1.57
FC Volendam xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.57 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 15D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (19W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.21 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.54 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 19W 11D 27L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Volendam away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won FC Volendam 3-0 Den Bosch.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 1, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: FC Volendam 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 57%, FC Volendam at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Den Bosch and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Den Bosch's games and 82% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Den Bosch and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 82% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.57 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.21 PPG, FC Volendam 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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