Den Bosch 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and FC OSS meet at Stadion de Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch at Stadion de Vliert this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, FC OSS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Den Bosch, 4 for FC OSS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 2–4 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 75% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 67% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.71 xG and FC OSS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.949 / defence 1.144 | FC OSS attack 0.703 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.901 / away 1.423. Data: 48 Den Bosch games / 48 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 25%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.00. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion de Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Den Bosch 1.71 / FC OSS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.949 / def 1.144 | FC OSS attack 0.703 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.901 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC OSS xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC OSS kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stadion de Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion de Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC OSS part of?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, FC OSS a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Den Bosch and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 5W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.70x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.19
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.86
1.15
FC OSS xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.15 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 15W 11D 22L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 22L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.17 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.44 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC OSS away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.39 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 6, FC OSS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Den Bosch, 61% for FC OSS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Den Bosch) and 44% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Den Bosch's games and 61% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Den Bosch's recent games and 44% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and FC OSS tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC OSS 2-1 at Stadion de Vliert, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.71 xG and FC OSS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against FC OSS attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 25%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.17 PPG, FC OSS 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.