Den Bosch vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to De Graafschap, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that De Graafschap have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 77% and De Graafschap 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 70% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.86 xG and De Graafschap 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.138 / defence 1.107 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Den Bosch 1.86 / De Graafschap 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.138 / def 1.107 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.76
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 8 January 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 41% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 3 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.93x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.57
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.62
1.76
De Graafschap xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.76 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 10D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.48 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.86 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.41 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
3
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, De Graafschap have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Den Bosch, 73% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 64% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Den Bosch's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 64% of De Graafschap's.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.