Den Bosch vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to De Graafschap, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with De Graafschap winning.
It is worth noting that De Graafschap have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 68% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.87 xG and De Graafschap 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / defence 1.131 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Den Bosch games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 1.87 / De Graafschap 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / def 1.131 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.62
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 8 January 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 44% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 3 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.51
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.49
1.62
De Graafschap xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.62 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 11D 22L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 21W 12D 17L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.50 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 8D 8L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 27 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, De Graafschap have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Den Bosch, 72% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Den Bosch's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.