De Graafschap vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Waalwijk meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–4 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Waalwijk 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 70% | Waalwijk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.51 xG and Waalwijk 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 33%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.51 / Waalwijk 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Waalwijk kick off?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk part of?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.89) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.80x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.01
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.85
1.33
Waalwijk xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 12D 17L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.44 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 76%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Waalwijk away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.54 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for De Graafschap, 71% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of De Graafschap's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do De Graafschap and Waalwijk tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.