De Graafschap 1-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.00 PPG versus VVV Venlo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 1, VVV Venlo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 54% versus VVV Venlo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 54% | VVV Venlo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.54 xG and VVV Venlo 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.857 / defence 1.005 | VVV Venlo attack 1.030 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.287. Data: 39 De Graafschap games / 39 VVV Venlo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 33%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG De Graafschap 1.54 / VVV Venlo 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.857 / def 1.005 | VVV Venlo attack 1.030 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.33
VVV Venlo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.36
25%
4.04
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.88
1.33
VVV Venlo xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 12D 13L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 15W 6D 18L from 39 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.38 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (4W 9D 6L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 7W 2D 10L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 15W 6D 18L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.11 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 58%, VVV Venlo 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (De Graafschap) and 63% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 32%; De Graafschap have failed to score in 26% of games; VVV Venlo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 42% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of De Graafschap's recent games and 63% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.54 xG and VVV Venlo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 33%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 54%, VVV Venlo 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.38 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.