De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for De Graafschap, 1.10 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: De Graafschap 3W, Jong Ajax 4W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Jong Ajax 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Jong Ajax 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.007 / defence 1.161 | Jong Ajax attack 0.907 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.534. Data: 63 De Graafschap games / 62 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 3.33. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 90% | Jong Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG De Graafschap 2.04 / Jong Ajax 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.007 / def 1.161 | Jong Ajax attack 0.907 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jong Ajax xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
De Graafschap 4 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Jong Ajax 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.91x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.16
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.65
1.61
Jong Ajax xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
4%
25.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.61 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 62 games, going 29W 14D 19L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.89 PPG from 62 outings (13W 16D 33L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 18W 5D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.57 points per game from 30 outings (4W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.13 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 29W 14D 19L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 13W 16D 33L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.97 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 63%, Jong Ajax 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for De Graafschap and 67% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of De Graafschap's games and 60% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Ajax 4-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Jong Ajax attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Jong Ajax 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.