De Graafschap 3-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.90 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: De Graafschap have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Helmond Sport have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Helmond Sport trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Helmond Sport 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Helmond Sport 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.023 / defence 1.071 | Helmond Sport attack 0.785 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Data: 52 De Graafschap games / 53 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 29%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Helmond Sport 3.45. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.61 / Helmond Sport 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.023 / def 1.071 | Helmond Sport attack 0.785 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Helmond Sport xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.02) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.08
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
Helmond Sport xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.23 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 13D 16L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 18W 11D 24L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.60 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.40 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 24W 13D 16L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.04 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, Helmond Sport 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for De Graafschap and 62% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 62% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of Helmond Sport's.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 3-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 29%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Helmond Sport 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.