De Graafschap 3-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 1D 1L from 6 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.17 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Excelsior are 0.67 PPG ahead (2.17 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 33% versus Excelsior 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 67% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 0.81 xG and Excelsior 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.670 / defence 1.260 | Excelsior attack 1.183 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 De Graafschap games / 6 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 13% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 68%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 7.69 | Draw 5.26 | Excelsior 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 0% | Excelsior 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 13% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 49% | xG De Graafschap 0.81 / Excelsior 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.670 / def 1.260 | Excelsior attack 1.183 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Excelsior xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Excelsior kick off?
De Graafschap vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is De Graafschap vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Excelsior part of?
De Graafschap vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 13% chance of winning, Excelsior a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both De Graafschap and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Excelsior in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.67x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
13%
7.73
19%
5.24
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.95
2.14
Excelsior xG
7.73
13%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
12%
8.50
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
65.73
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.14 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 3W 0D 3L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 1L across 6 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over De Graafschap heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.17 PPG overall record — Excelsior travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Excelsior in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.00 PPG; Excelsior away: 3.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Excelsior in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — De Graafschap 0% BTTS, Excelsior 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for De Graafschap and 100% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Excelsior in 33%; De Graafschap have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 67% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 100% of Excelsior's.
Do De Graafschap and Excelsior tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Excelsior 3-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 0.81 xG and Excelsior 2.14 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Excelsior attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 13% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 68%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 67%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with De Graafschap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.