De Graafschap vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, Emmen 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Emmen have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for De Graafschap.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Emmen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Emmen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.17 xG and Emmen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.121 / defence 0.991 | Emmen attack 0.962 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 De Graafschap games / 38 Emmen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 20% | Emmen 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Emmen 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 20% | Emmen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 2.17 / Emmen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.121 / def 0.991 | Emmen attack 0.962 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Emmen xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 56% chance of winning, Emmen a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Emmen 5W.
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.12x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.88
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.53
1.36
Emmen xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
3%
37.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.36 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 17W 10D 11L from 38 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 17L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. Emmen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Emmen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.53 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Emmen in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
Emmen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 10D 11L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Emmen have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.63 PPG; Emmen away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Emmen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 74%, Emmen at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for De Graafschap and 63% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of De Graafschap's games and 58% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of De Graafschap's matches and 63% of Emmen's.
Do De Graafschap and Emmen tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Emmen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.