De Graafschap 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
De Graafschap welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Emmen — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Emmen have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Emmen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2022, ended De Graafschap 1–1 Emmen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Emmen in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Emmen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Emmen 58%). Note also that Emmen surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while De Graafschap recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.80 xG and Emmen 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.904 / defence 0.821 | Emmen attack 0.941 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.262. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 40 games and Emmen's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.76 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 4.96. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 20% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 90% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (De Graafschap 40 games, Emmen 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG De Graafschap 1.80 / Emmen 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.904 / def 0.821 | Emmen attack 0.941 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Emmen xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Emmen FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 3) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 57% chance of winning, Emmen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.90x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 40 games and Emmen's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.35
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.78
0.97
Emmen xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
3%
30.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Emmen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.97 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 16W 8D 16L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 20L across 40 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Emmen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 3D 7L from their last 20 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 4W 2D 14L across their last 20 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.05 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Emmen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Emmen Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Emmen have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.65 PPG; Emmen away: 0.70 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Emmen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won De Graafschap 4-0 Emmen.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Emmen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 40%, Emmen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (De Graafschap) and 70% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Emmen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Emmen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of De Graafschap's games and 70% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and Emmen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of De Graafschap's matches and 70% of Emmen's.
Do De Graafschap and Emmen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 75% of Emmen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat De Graafschap 0-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.80 xG and Emmen 0.97 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Emmen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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