De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Almere City FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Almere City FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | Almere City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.55 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.259 / defence 0.976 | Almere City FC attack 1.149 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 De Graafschap games / 38 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 5.56 | Almere City FC 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.15 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Almere City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG De Graafschap 2.55 / Almere City FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.259 / def 0.976 | Almere City FC attack 1.149 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Almere City FC xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kick off?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
De Graafschap 2 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC part of?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 58% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 23% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both De Graafschap and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.15x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
58%
1.71
18%
5.43
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.15
1.59
Almere City FC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.77
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
8%
12.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
2%
55.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.59 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 35W 17D 23L from 75 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 36L across 75 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 23W 5D 9L from 37 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 11W 6D 20L across 37 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 35W 17D 23L in their last 75 games (1.63 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 25W 14D 36L in their last 75 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Almere City FC away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, Almere City FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for De Graafschap and 62% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 51% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Almere City FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 57% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of Almere City FC's.
Do De Graafschap and Almere City FC tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Vijverberg, Quarter-finals, as De Graafschap and Almere City FC drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.55 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 0.98 against Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.23, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, Almere City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.