De Graafschap 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 2.00 PPG versus ADO Den Haag's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 50% versus ADO Den Haag 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 75% | ADO Den Haag 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.18 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.847 / defence 1.105 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.106 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.438. Data: 12 De Graafschap games / 12 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 51%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 1.96. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 33% | ADO Den Haag 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.18 / ADO Den Haag 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.847 / def 1.105 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.106 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.76
ADO Den Haag xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 26% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.85) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
26%
3.90
23%
4.26
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.94
1.76
ADO Den Haag xG
3.90
26%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
22.65
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.76 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.92 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.33 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.83 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 33%, ADO Den Haag 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for De Graafschap and 67% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 33%; De Graafschap have failed to score in 50% of games; ADO Den Haag in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.18 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.76 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 26% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 51%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 75%, ADO Den Haag 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.92 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.