Cambuur 3-3 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cambuur Stadion, Cambuur have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, VVV Venlo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Cambuur, 1.30 for VVV Venlo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cambuur 1W, VVV Venlo 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 58% and VVV Venlo 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 70% | VVV Venlo 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.95 xG and VVV Venlo 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.170 / defence 1.338 | VVV Venlo attack 0.798 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.306. Data: 23 Cambuur games / 62 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 26%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | VVV Venlo 3.85. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 1.95 / VVV Venlo 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.170 / def 1.338 | VVV Venlo attack 0.798 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.39
VVV Venlo xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Cambuur 3 - 3 VVV Venlo.
Where is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo part of?
Cambuur vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 49% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.17) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.80x) against Cambuur's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 23/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.12
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.34
1.39
VVV Venlo xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
4%
26.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.39 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 9D 33L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 22W 17D 18L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VVV Venlo are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (8W 3D 17L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 9D 33L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.96 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-0 on 28 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and VVV Venlo?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 54%, VVV Venlo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Cambuur and 57% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cambuur's games and 64% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Cambuur's matches and 57% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Cambuur and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and VVV Venlo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and VVV Venlo finished level at 3-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.95 xG and VVV Venlo 1.39 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.17 / defence 1.34 against VVV Venlo attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 26%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 70%, VVV Venlo 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.