Cambuur 1-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Cambuur against 1.40 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jong AZ in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 54% versus Jong AZ 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 69% | Jong AZ 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.29 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.164 / defence 1.217 | Jong AZ attack 0.832 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Cambuur games / 56 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 57% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Cambuur 2.29 / Jong AZ 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.164 / def 1.217 | Jong AZ attack 0.832 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jong AZ xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong AZ kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong AZ part of?
Cambuur vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 57% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cambuur and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Jong AZ in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.16) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.83x) against Cambuur's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.60
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.68
1.39
Jong AZ xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
2%
45.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.39 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 8D 30L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 18W 13D 21L from 52 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cambuur against 1.29 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (7W 3D 15L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 6W 4D 15L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.46 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 30L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong AZ away?
Cambuur's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.96 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 48%, Jong AZ 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Cambuur and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 40% of games; Jong AZ in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cambuur's recent matches and 60% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do Cambuur and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.29 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against Jong AZ attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 57% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 69%, Jong AZ 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.96 PPG, Jong AZ 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.