Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waalwijk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Almere City FC, 1.80 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Almere City FC 1W, Waalwijk 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 51% versus Waalwijk 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | Waalwijk 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.059 / defence 0.894 | Waalwijk attack 1.116 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.445. Data: 31 Almere City FC games / 31 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.56 / Waalwijk 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.059 / def 0.894 | Waalwijk attack 1.116 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Waalwijk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kick off?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Almere City FC 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk part of?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 40% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.12x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
40%
2.47
24%
4.12
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Waalwijk xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.44 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 19W 13D 33L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 19W 15D 31L from 65 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.11 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (10W 7D 15L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.48 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 66%.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 19W 13D 33L in their last 65 games (1.08 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 19W 15D 31L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Waalwijk away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Waalwijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 47%, Waalwijk 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Almere City FC and 66% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Almere City FC's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almere City FC's matches and 66% of Waalwijk's.
Do Almere City FC and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as Almere City FC and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Waalwijk attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.08 PPG, Waalwijk 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.