Almere City FC 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and FC OSS meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 3W 2D 5L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC OSS (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Almere City FC 2W, FC OSS 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 56% versus FC OSS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 69% | FC OSS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.64 xG and FC OSS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.028 | FC OSS attack 0.974 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.287. Data: 39 Almere City FC games / 39 FC OSS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 30%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 3.33. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 20% | FC OSS 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Almere City FC 1.64 / FC OSS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.926 / def 1.028 | FC OSS attack 0.974 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC OSS xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC OSS kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC OSS part of?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 46% chance of winning, FC OSS a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almere City FC and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.97x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.13
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.29
FC OSS xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.29 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 8D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 8D 19L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.13 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.31 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC OSS away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Almere City FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 0-5 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Almere City FC
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 6, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Almere City FC 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 42%, FC OSS 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Almere City FC and 63% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 32% of games; FC OSS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 58% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Almere City FC's matches and 63% of FC OSS's.
Do Almere City FC and FC OSS tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC OSS 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.64 xG and FC OSS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against FC OSS attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 30%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 69%, FC OSS 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.05 PPG, FC OSS 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.