Almere City FC 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Round of 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 55% versus Den Bosch 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 62% | Den Bosch 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.32 xG and Den Bosch 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.157 / defence 1.031 | Den Bosch attack 1.108 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Almere City FC games / 76 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 53% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 27%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.89 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 3.70. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | Den Bosch 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 53% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Almere City FC 2.32 / Den Bosch 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.157 / def 1.031 | Den Bosch attack 1.108 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Den Bosch xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Round of 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 53% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 27% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Record (7 meetings): Almere City FC 3W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.16) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.11x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
53%
1.87
20%
5.05
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.94
1.62
Den Bosch xG
1.87
53%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
10%
10.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
3%
37.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.62 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 14D 36L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.29 PPG from 73 outings (25W 19D 29L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.29 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 8D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.03 points per game from 36 outings (10W 7D 19L).
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.48 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 23W 14D 36L in their last 73 games (1.14 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 25W 19D 29L in their last 73 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, Den Bosch 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almere City FC and 72% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 72% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Round of 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.32 xG and Den Bosch 1.62 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Den Bosch attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 53% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 27%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 62%, Den Bosch 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.