Almere City FC 4-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees ADO Den Haag travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 December 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Almere City FC are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 0, ADO Den Haag 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 56% versus ADO Den Haag 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 65% | ADO Den Haag 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.68 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.054 / defence 0.997 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.834 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.347. Data: 54 Almere City FC games / 54 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | ADO Den Haag 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | ADO Den Haag 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Almere City FC 1.68 / ADO Den Haag 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.054 / def 0.997 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.834 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
ADO Den Haag xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Almere City FC 4 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 50% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.05) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.14
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.12
ADO Den Haag xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.12 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 10D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.72 PPG from 54 outings (27W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 10W 5D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.76 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 19W 10D 25L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.30 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Almere City FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, ADO Den Haag 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Almere City FC and 59% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 26% of games; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 56% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Almere City FC's matches and 59% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat ADO Den Haag 4-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.68 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.12 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 50% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 65%, ADO Den Haag 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.