ADO Den Haag 0-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Roda meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 16 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–5 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 62% and Roda 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 62% | Roda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.68 xG and Roda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.957 / defence 1.133 | Roda attack 0.894 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.371. Data: 53 ADO Den Haag games / 53 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 24% | Roda 32%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 3.12. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 24% | Roda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.68 / Roda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.957 / def 1.133 | Roda attack 0.894 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Roda xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Roda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 16 November 2022 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 1 Roda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Roda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 45% chance of winning, Roda a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.96) and Roda's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.89x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.22
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.07
1.39
Roda xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.39 for Roda, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 55 games, going 28W 13D 14L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.60 PPG from 55 outings (24W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.60 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 15W 7D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.89 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 28W 13D 14L in their last 55 games (1.76 PPG), while Roda have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Roda away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.93 PPG; Roda away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Roda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 67%, Roda 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for ADO Den Haag and 59% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ADO Den Haag's games and 59% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 59% of Roda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Roda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat ADO Den Haag 0-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.68 xG and Roda 1.39 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Roda attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 24% | Roda 32%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, Roda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.76 PPG, Roda 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.