ADO Den Haag 0-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Roda meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Roda's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Roda — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 62% and Roda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 59% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.87 xG and Roda 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.012 / defence 1.129 | Roda attack 0.967 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.248. Data: 39 ADO Den Haag games / 39 Roda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 23% | Roda 28%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 3.57. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 90% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 23% | Roda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.87 / Roda 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.012 / def 1.129 | Roda attack 0.967 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Roda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 3 Roda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Roda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Roda is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 49% chance of winning, Roda a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 2W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Roda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.01) and Roda's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.97x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.43
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.23
1.36
Roda xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.36 for Roda, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 13D 13L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (13W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.18 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.36 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Roda in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Roda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 13D 13L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while Roda have gone 13W 7D 19L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Roda away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.26 PPG; Roda away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Roda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Roda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 68%, Roda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ADO Den Haag and 53% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ADO Den Haag's games and 53% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 53% of Roda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Roda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat ADO Den Haag 0-3 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.87 xG and Roda 1.36 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Roda attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 23% | Roda 28%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.33 PPG, Roda 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.