Virtus Entella 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Virtus Entella take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 1L across 8 games at Stadio Comunale this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 1W 8D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 0.90 PPG, Sudtirol 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Sudtirol in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 56% versus Sudtirol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 38% | Sudtirol 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 0.97 xG and Sudtirol 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.786 / defence 1.030 | Sudtirol attack 0.883 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.071. Virtus Entella's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Virtus Entella games / 54 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 33%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Sudtirol 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Virtus Entella 62% | Sudtirol 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Virtus Entella 0.97 / Sudtirol 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.786 / def 1.030 | Sudtirol attack 0.883 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sudtirol xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Virtus Entella 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol part of?
Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Virtus Entella and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.79) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.08
35%
2.88
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
1.94
0.97
Sudtirol xG
3.08
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.97 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 3W 6D 7L from 16 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 5L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 0.94 PPG, Sudtirol on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 0W 7D 1L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.94 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 9D 5L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Sudtirol away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.62 PPG; Sudtirol away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Sudtirol?
From 3 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sudtirol 1-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Virtus Entella at 62%, Sudtirol at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Virtus Entella and 25% for Sudtirol.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Virtus Entella's games and 75% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 25% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Virtus Entella and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 17, as Virtus Entella and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.97 xG and Sudtirol 0.97 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 38%, Sudtirol 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 0.94 PPG, Sudtirol 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.