Vicenza Virtus vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Modena at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vicenza Virtus 1.33 PPG, Modena 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Modena in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 67% versus Modena 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Modena 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.20 xG and Modena 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Modena attack 1.186 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 27% | Draw 24% | Modena 49%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Modena 2.04. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 27% | Draw 24% | Modena 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.20 / Modena 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Modena attack 1.186 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Modena (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Modena xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Modena kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Modena part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 27% chance of winning, Modena a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Modena in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.06) and Modena's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
27%
3.71
24%
4.19
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.91
1.71
Modena xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
20.53
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.71 for Modena, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Modena in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Modena in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 67%, Modena 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Modena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Modena's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Modena tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.