Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Como at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Como to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0W 1D 6L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 0.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.14 lags behind their overall 0.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Romeo Menti this season.
Como — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Como are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Como trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 50% versus Como 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 50% | Como 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG and Como 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.966 / defence 1.534 | Como attack 1.105 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.185. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Vicenza Virtus games / 16 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 23% | Como 52%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Como 1.92. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 57% | Como 88% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 23% | Como 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.34 / Como 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.966 / def 1.534 | Como attack 1.105 / def 1.407 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Como (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Como xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Como kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Como kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Como?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Como part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Como is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance of winning, Como a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Como?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Como in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.97x the league average against Como's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
25%
4.05
23%
4.36
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.34
2.01
Como xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
3%
30.21
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 2.01 for Como, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 1D 13L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 0W 1D 6L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.44 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Como in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 1D 13L in their last 16 games (0.44 PPG), while Como have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.14 PPG; Como away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Como have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Como last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Como 0-2 Vicenza Virtus.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 57%, Como at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vicenza Virtus) and 57% (Como).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 86% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 57% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Como tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Como in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Vicenza Virtus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Vicenza Virtus 0-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG and Como 2.01 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.97 / defence 1.53 against Como attack 1.10 / defence 1.41, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 23% | Como 52%, with Como to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 50%, Como 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.