Venezia 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Venezia welcome Ternana to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ternana's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ternana in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 62% and Ternana 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 48% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.12 xG and Ternana 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.733 / defence 1.462 | Ternana attack 1.136 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.112. Venezia's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Venezia games / 52 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 25% | Ternana 53%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Ternana 1.89. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 25% | Ternana 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Venezia 1.12 / Ternana 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.733 / def 1.462 | Ternana attack 1.136 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Ternana (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Ternana kick off?
Venezia vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 December 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Ternana?
Venezia 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Venezia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Ternana part of?
Venezia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 22% chance of winning, Ternana a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Venezia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Ternana in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Ternana (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Venezia's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
22%
4.60
25%
4.00
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.96
1.85
Ternana xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
3%
29.11
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Venezia and 1.85 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 9W 12D 31L from 52 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 18L across 52 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ternana by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 3W 6D 17L from 26 games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 9W 12D 31L in their last 52 games (0.75 PPG), while Ternana have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.58 PPG; Ternana away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Venezia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Venezia have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Venezia
0
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 4, Ternana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Venezia 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Ternana?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 69%, Ternana at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 62% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Venezia's games and 81% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Venezia's matches and 62% of Ternana's.
Do Venezia and Ternana tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ternana in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.12 xG and Ternana 1.85 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.46 against Ternana attack 1.14 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 22% | Draw 25% | Ternana 53%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 48%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.