Venezia 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Venezia's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.344 / defence 1.000 | Pisa attack 0.725 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Venezia games / 48 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Pisa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Venezia 1.17 / Pisa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.344 / def 1.000 | Pisa attack 0.725 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Pisa kick off?
Venezia vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Venezia 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Venezia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Pisa part of?
Venezia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Venezia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Venezia and Pisa in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Venezia's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.72x) against Venezia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
41%
2.47
35%
2.89
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.04
0.87
Pisa xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Venezia and 0.87 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 17L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Venezia against 1.23 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 11D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.19 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Pisa have gone 14W 17D 17L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Pisa away?
Venezia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.57 PPG; Pisa away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Venezia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Venezia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Pisa 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Pisa?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Pisa 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Venezia) and 26% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 48%; Pisa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Venezia's recent matches and 39% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Venezia's recent games and 26% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Pisa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pisa in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.17 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.34 / defence 1.00 against Pisa attack 0.72 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.40 PPG, Pisa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.