Venezia 0-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Benevento at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 0.90 PPG versus Benevento's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Benevento in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Benevento 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Benevento 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.97 xG and Benevento 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.863 / defence 1.267 | Benevento attack 0.922 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.061. Data: 3 Venezia games / 41 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 29% | Benevento 42%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Benevento 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 29% | Benevento 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Venezia 0.97 / Benevento 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.863 / def 1.267 | Benevento attack 0.922 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Benevento (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Benevento xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Benevento kick off?
Venezia vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Benevento?
Venezia 0 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Venezia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Benevento part of?
Venezia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Venezia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Benevento in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
29%
3.46
29%
3.48
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.24
Benevento xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Venezia and 1.24 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia come into this having played 41 games, going 7W 10D 24L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.68 PPG from 41 outings (20W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Venezia's home form reads 3W 5D 12L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.51 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benevento in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 7W 10D 24L in their last 41 games (0.76 PPG), while Benevento have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.70 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Venezia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Benevento in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Benevento runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Benevento 1-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Benevento 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Venezia) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 35%; Benevento in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Venezia's recent matches and 35% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Venezia's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Benevento tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Benevento in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.97 xG and Benevento 1.24 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against Benevento attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 29% | Draw 29% | Benevento 42%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Benevento 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.