Venezia 0-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ascoli at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ascoli have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ascoli have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ascoli are 0.60 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie B fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ascoli — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 65% versus Ascoli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Ascoli 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.87 xG and Ascoli 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.747 / defence 1.417 | Ascoli attack 1.061 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Venezia's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Venezia games / 48 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 24% | Ascoli 56%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Ascoli 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Ascoli (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Ascoli 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 24% | Ascoli 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Venezia 0.87 / Ascoli 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.747 / def 1.417 | Ascoli attack 1.061 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Ascoli xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Ascoli kick off?
Venezia vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Ascoli?
Venezia 0 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Venezia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Ascoli part of?
Venezia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 19% chance of winning, Ascoli a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Venezia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Ascoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (1.06x) against Venezia's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
19%
5.13
24%
4.12
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.67
Ascoli xG
5.13
19%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
4%
27.24
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Venezia and 1.67 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Ascoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 8W 12D 28L from 48 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 15L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 3W 6D 14L from 23 games — 0.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 13W 3D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.33 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 8W 12D 28L in their last 48 games (0.75 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.65 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Ascoli?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Ascoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 44% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 52% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.87 xG and Ascoli 1.67 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.75 / defence 1.42 against Ascoli attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 19% | Draw 24% | Ascoli 56%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Ascoli 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.