Ternana 3-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ternana take on Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ternana's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Ternana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana (all games): 1W 4D 2L across their last 7 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 away fixtures (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reggiana are 0.80 PPG clear of Ternana over their recent games (1.00 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 57% versus Reggiana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 43% | Reggiana 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.845 / defence 0.988 | Reggiana attack 0.897 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.182. Data: built from Ternana's last 45 games and Reggiana's last 7.
Result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.44 | Draw 2.63 | Reggiana 3.04. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ternana 0.97 / Reggiana 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.845 / def 0.988 | Reggiana attack 0.897 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Reggiana xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Reggiana kick off?
Ternana vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Reggiana?
Ternana 3 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Ternana vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Reggiana part of?
Ternana vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 29% chance of winning, Reggiana a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ternana and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ternana vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.84x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.90x) against Ternana's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 45 games and Reggiana's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
38%
2.63
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.02
1.05
Reggiana xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ternana and 1.05 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 2D 5L for 0.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Reggiana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Ternana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ternana's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 4 away games (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
Ternana (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Ternana vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 0.50 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Ternana and Reggiana, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Reggiana 0-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Reggiana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Reggiana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ternana) and 50% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 50% of games; Reggiana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ternana's recent games and 50% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Ternana run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Reggiana 3-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.05 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 29% | Draw 38% | Reggiana 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 43%, Reggiana 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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