Ternana 1-2 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Como at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Como — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 1W 3D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.30 PPG versus Como's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Como in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Como 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ternana 60% | Como 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.65 xG and Como 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.342 / defence 1.130 | Como attack 1.023 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Ternana carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ternana games / 10 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 44% | Draw 27% | Como 29%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Como 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Como 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 44% | Draw 27% | Como 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Ternana 1.65 / Como 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.342 / def 1.130 | Como attack 1.023 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Ternana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Como xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Como kick off?
Ternana vs Como kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Como?
Ternana 1 - 2 Como.
Where is Ternana vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Como part of?
Ternana vs Como is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 44% chance of winning, Como a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Como?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ternana and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Como in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ternana's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.67
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.96
1.31
Como xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ternana and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ternana and 1.31 for Como, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 1D 5L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.30 PPG, Como on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ternana's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Como in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Como have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Como away?
Ternana's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.80 PPG; Como away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
1
Draws
5
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Como have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Como last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 40%, Como 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ternana) and 40% (Como).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Ternana's games and 80% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ternana's recent games and 40% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Como tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Como in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Ternana 1-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.65 xG and Como 1.31 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.34 / defence 1.13 against Como attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 44% | Draw 27% | Como 29%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 60%, Como 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.30 PPG, Como 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.