Ternana 1-2 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Cittadella have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ternana, 1.10 for Cittadella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ternana 2W, Cittadella 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Ternana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 56% versus Cittadella 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Cittadella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.13 xG and Cittadella 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.872 / defence 0.902 | Cittadella attack 0.819 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.027. Data: 63 Ternana games / 63 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Cittadella 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 30% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Ternana 1.13 / Cittadella 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.872 / def 0.902 | Cittadella attack 0.819 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Ternana (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cittadella xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cittadella kick off?
Ternana vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Ternana 1 - 2 Cittadella.
Where is Ternana vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cittadella part of?
Ternana vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 43% chance of winning, Cittadella a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ternana and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 2W | Draws 1 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Cittadella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.87) and Cittadella's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.82x) against Ternana's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
43%
2.30
33%
3.07
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.89
0.76
Cittadella xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ternana and 0.76 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 63 games, going 24W 16D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.30 PPG from 63 outings (20W 22D 21L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Ternana against 1.30 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 15W 6D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.95 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 24W 16D 23L in their last 63 games (1.40 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 20W 22D 21L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cittadella away?
Ternana's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.65 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Ternana or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cittadella in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Ternana 3-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cittadella?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 39%, Cittadella 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ternana) and 29% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cittadella in 36%; Cittadella in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Ternana's recent matches and 42% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ternana's recent games and 29% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cittadella tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Ternana 1-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.13 xG and Cittadella 0.76 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cittadella outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Cittadella 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cittadella's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.40 PPG, Cittadella 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.