Ternana 2-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ternana take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Benevento meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Benevento (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ternana, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Benevento — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Benevento 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.85 xG and Benevento 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.897 / defence 1.032 | Benevento attack 0.821 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 0.989. Data: 65 Ternana games / 65 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 37% | Benevento 31%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Benevento 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 40% | Benevento 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 37% | Benevento 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Ternana 0.85 / Benevento 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.897 / def 1.032 | Benevento attack 0.821 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.123 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Benevento xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Benevento kick off?
Ternana vs Benevento kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Benevento?
Ternana 2 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Ternana vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Benevento part of?
Ternana vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 32% chance of winning, Benevento a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Ternana and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 2W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Ternana and Benevento in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.90x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.82x) against Ternana's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
37%
2.74
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.69
0.84
Benevento xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Ternana and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Ternana and 0.84 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 17D 24L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 25W 17D 23L from 65 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Ternana against 1.42 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 11W 11D 10L from 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Benevento in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Benevento have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Benevento away?
Ternana's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.59 PPG; Benevento away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Ternana or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Benevento in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Ternana 2-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Benevento?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 41%, Benevento 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Ternana and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Benevento in 31%; Benevento in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Ternana's recent matches and 41% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Benevento tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Benevento in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Benevento share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Benevento finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.85 xG and Benevento 0.84 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Benevento attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 32% | Draw 37% | Benevento 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Benevento 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.37 PPG, Benevento 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.