Sudtirol 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Cosenza at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sudtirol) versus 0.90 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 0 for Cosenza and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 34% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.05 xG and Cosenza 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.892 / defence 1.038 | Cosenza attack 0.574 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Data: 59 Sudtirol games / 59 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 23%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Cosenza 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 60% | Cosenza 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Sudtirol 1.05 / Cosenza 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.892 / def 1.038 | Cosenza attack 0.574 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cosenza xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cosenza kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cosenza part of?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sudtirol and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 3 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.41
35%
2.84
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.77
0.72
Cosenza xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.72 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 22W 22D 17L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 25L across 61 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.44 PPG, Cosenza on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 11W 13D 6L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 4W 10D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 22W 22D 17L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cosenza away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.53 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cosenza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 57%, Cosenza 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sudtirol and 27% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 37% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sudtirol's recent games and 27% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cosenza tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.05 xG and Cosenza 0.72 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.57 / defence 0.87, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 23%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Cosenza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 34%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.44 PPG, Cosenza 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.