Sudtirol vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Carrarese at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 0.90 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Carrarese and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Carrarese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.26 xG and Carrarese 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.889 / defence 0.893 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 40 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Carrarese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Sudtirol 1.26 / Carrarese 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.889 / def 0.893 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Carrarese xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Carrarese kick off?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Carrarese part of?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Carrarese a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sudtirol and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 3 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.24
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.23
0.97
Carrarese xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.97 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 8W 19D 13L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.08 PPG, Carrarese on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 19D 13L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Carrarese away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.15 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Carrarese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Carrarese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 45%, Carrarese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 55% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Sudtirol's games and 65% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 55% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.