Spezia 0-2 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Feralpisalo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Spezia welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Feralpisalo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 1.30 PPG, Feralpisalo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 0 for Feralpisalo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Feralpisalo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Feralpisalo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.38 xG and Feralpisalo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.871 / defence 1.032 | Feralpisalo attack 0.719 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.224. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Spezia games / 26 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 23%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Feralpisalo 4.35. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 40% | Feralpisalo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 1.38 / Feralpisalo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.871 / def 1.032 | Feralpisalo attack 0.719 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Spezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Spezia vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Feralpisalo?
Spezia 0 - 2 Feralpisalo.
Where is Spezia vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Feralpisalo part of?
Spezia vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 46% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Feralpisalo?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Feralpisalo 0W.
What form are Spezia and Feralpisalo in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.18
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.28
0.91
Feralpisalo xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Spezia and 0.91 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 11D 10L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feralpisalo's form line: 5W 6D 15L from 26 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.00 PPG, Feralpisalo on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
On the road, Feralpisalo have gone 2W 3D 7L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 1.04 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Feralpisalo away?
Spezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Feralpisalo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spezia
0
Draws
1
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Feralpisalo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when Spezia 0-2 Feralpisalo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Feralpisalo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 42%, Feralpisalo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Spezia) and 58% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 50% of games; Feralpisalo in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Feralpisalo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Spezia's recent matches and 58% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Spezia's recent games and 58% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Feralpisalo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.38 xG and Feralpisalo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Feralpisalo outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Feralpisalo attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 23%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Feralpisalo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 50%, Feralpisalo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.00 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feralpisalo win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.