Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Empoli at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Empoli away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 1.20 PPG, Empoli 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Empoli and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Empoli trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 51% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.52 xG and Empoli 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.878 / defence 0.988 | Empoli attack 0.983 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.105. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Sampdoria games / 32 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 46% | Draw 29% | Empoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 4.00. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 50% | Empoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 46% | Draw 29% | Empoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sampdoria 1.52 / Empoli 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.878 / def 0.988 | Empoli attack 0.983 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Empoli xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Empoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Empoli kicked off at 16:15 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Sampdoria vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Empoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 46% chance of winning, Empoli a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sampdoria and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 2 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.88) and Empoli's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.44
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Empoli xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.07 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 26D 27L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 14W 25D 31L from 70 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.10 PPG, Empoli on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (14W 11D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 8D 18L from 34 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.09 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 17W 26D 27L in their last 70 games (1.10 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 25D 31L in their last 70 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Empoli away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.56 PPG; Empoli away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
2
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 38%, Empoli 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sampdoria) and 62% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 65% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sampdoria's recent games and 62% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Empoli tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Empoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.52 xG and Empoli 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Empoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 46% | Draw 29% | Empoli 25%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.10 PPG, Empoli 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.