Sampdoria 3-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Carrarese at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.00 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 0, Carrarese 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 36% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.47 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.826 / defence 0.901 | Carrarese attack 0.990 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.066. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Sampdoria games / 52 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 48% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.35. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 30% | Carrarese 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 48% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sampdoria 1.47 / Carrarese 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.826 / def 0.901 | Carrarese attack 0.990 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carrarese xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Carrarese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Sampdoria 3 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Carrarese part of?
Sampdoria vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 48% chance of winning, Carrarese a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sampdoria and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.83) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.45
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.42
0.95
Carrarese xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
18.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.95 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 20D 21L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 14W 19D 19L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.02 PPG, Carrarese on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 11D 13L from 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 20D 21L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Carrarese away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.38 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Carrarese in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Carrarese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 31%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 38% of games; Carrarese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 62% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Sampdoria's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Carrarese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Carrarese 3-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.47 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Carrarese attack 0.99 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 48% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 23%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 36%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.02 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.