Sampdoria 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Bari meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Bari (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sampdoria. A 0.60 PPG lead over Bari (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Bari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 45% | Bari 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Bari 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.013 / defence 1.200 | Bari attack 0.907 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.175. Data: 18 Sampdoria games / 56 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 28% | Bari 35%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bari 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 60% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 28% | Bari 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sampdoria 1.33 / Bari 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.013 / def 1.200 | Bari attack 0.907 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bari xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Bari kick off?
Sampdoria vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Sampdoria vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Bari part of?
Sampdoria vs Bari is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 37% chance of winning, Bari a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sampdoria and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Bari in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.01) and Bari's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.91x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.61
1.28
Bari xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.28 for Bari, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 10W 13D 33L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 21W 22D 13L from 56 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.79 PPG from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
On the road, Bari have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.23 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Bari in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 13D 33L in their last 56 games (0.77 PPG), while Bari have gone 21W 22D 13L in their last 56 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.79 PPG; Bari away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bari in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Sampdoria 0-2 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 46%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Sampdoria and 29% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Bari in 32%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 43% of games; Bari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sampdoria's recent games and 29% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Bari tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Bari finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Bari 1.28 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Bari attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 37% | Draw 28% | Bari 35%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 45%, Bari 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.