Reggina 0-4 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reggina have posted 3W 2D 3L at Stadio Oreste Granillo — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alessandria (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Alessandria have posted 1W 1D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Reggina — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Alessandria — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 44% versus Alessandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 38% | Alessandria 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.34 xG and Alessandria 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.925 / defence 1.192 | Alessandria attack 0.791 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.176. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Reggina games / 16 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 41% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 30%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Alessandria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 62% | Alessandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 41% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Reggina 1.34 / Alessandria 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.925 / def 1.192 | Alessandria attack 0.791 / def 1.493 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Reggina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Alessandria xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Alessandria kick off?
Reggina vs Alessandria kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Alessandria?
Reggina 0 - 4 Alessandria.
Where is Reggina vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Alessandria part of?
Reggina vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 41% chance of winning, Alessandria a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggina and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Alessandria in?
Reggina (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Alessandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.93) and Alessandria's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.79x) against Reggina's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.53
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Alessandria xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggina and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reggina and 1.11 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggina's recent record stands at 6W 4D 6L from 16 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 10L across 16 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alessandria's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 0.94 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Alessandria away?
Reggina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.38 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Reggina or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alessandria in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Alessandria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Alessandria 0-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Alessandria?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 62%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Reggina) and 38% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Reggina have failed to score in 38% of games; Alessandria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Reggina's games and 50% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggina vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Reggina's recent games and 38% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Alessandria tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alessandria run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Reggina 0-4 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.34 xG and Alessandria 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Alessandria outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Alessandria attack 0.79 / defence 1.49, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 41% | Draw 28% | Alessandria 30%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Alessandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 38%, Alessandria 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alessandria's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.